The South African Economy
The macro backdrop behind every party budget — inflation, interest rates, growth, jobs, the rand, fuel and the minimum wage, 2022 to 2026.
Headline inflation (CPI, annual avg)
Stats SA. 2026 is an estimate.
SARB repo rate (year-end)
SARB MPC year-end level. 2026 reflects the May 2026 hike back to 7%.
Real GDP growth
Stats SA (2022–2024 published); 2025–2026 National Treasury / BER estimates.
Unemployment rate (official)
Stats SA QLFS annual average (strict definition). 2025–2026 from latest QLFS trend.
Rand / US dollar (annual avg)
SARB / World Bank official annual average. 2026 is an estimate.
Petrol 95 inland (Gauteng, per litre)
DMRE inland 95-octane annual average of monthly gazette prices; 2026 estimate.
National minimum wage (per hour)
Dept of Employment & Labour gazettes — published figure each year (2026: Gazette No. 54075).
All indicators, 2022–2026
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (CPI, annual avg) | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% |
| SARB repo rate (year-end) | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| Real GDP growth | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Unemployment rate (official) | 33.3% | 32.1% | 32.3% | 32.7% | 32.5% |
| Rand / US dollar (annual avg) | R16.37 | R18.45 | R18.34 | R17.91 | R18.40 |
| Petrol 95 inland (Gauteng, per litre) | R23.94 | R23.10 | R22.05 | R21.40 | R22.10 |
| National minimum wage (per hour) | R23.19 | R25.42 | R27.58 | R28.79 | R30.23 |
Frequently asked questions
Where do the 2026 prices come from?
Every 2026 price is scraped live from South African retailer and hire-house websites — Checkers, Pick n Pay, Shoprite, Woolworths, TOPS, and dedicated party or costume suppliers. Multipack listings are normalised to a per-unit price matching the product title.
How are 2022–2025 prices calculated?
Earlier years are reverse-engineered from the verified 2026 anchor using an eight-factor weighted model: headline inflation, excise (alcohol), packaging PPI, fuel/logistics, electricity, USD/ZAR pass-through, producer list-price increases, and retail margin change — with different weights per category.
What is the inflation rate in South Africa in 2026?
Headline CPI is estimated at approximately 3.5% for 2026 (annual average), down from 6.9% in 2022. This page charts inflation alongside repo rate, GDP, unemployment, the rand and fuel — the macro drivers behind party budget changes.