Once a Star, Now a Flickering Light

As the casual moviegoer steps outside, hoping to catch a flick under the stars, our data reveals a rather chilling trend. Searches for 'outdoor cinema near me' have plummeted by an alarming 34% year-on-year, averag just 422 searches a month. This consistent decline is not a fleeting moment but a societal shift away from the joys of al fresco film viewing.

What jumps out is the stark decline from a high of 590 searches in January 2023 to a mere 290 by March 590. The data tells us that while the novelty of outdoor cinema may have captivated audiences during its peak, interest is now waning significantly. This extended decline suggests that outdoor cinemas, whether hosted in the heart of Johannesburg or the scenic coastal towns of the Western Cape, are losing their appeal.

In a country where social gatherings and communal experiences are deeply cherished, this trend raises eyebrows. It's curious to note that even seasonal spikes around December, which traditionally fuel outdoor events, failed to rekindle interest. Therefore, one must ask: has the outdoor cinema concept seen its day?

630
Mar 2023
peak month
470
May 2026
latest

What This Means for the SA Market

The declining interest in outdoor cinema signifies shifting cultural trends within South Africa. With Gauteng, home to the majority of the population at 18.2 million, registering lower search volume for outdoor cinema than its coastal counterparts, it raises questions about the viability of investing in such ventures. The Western Cape, for all its scenic beauty, is also finding it difficult to sustain enthusiasm for outdoor screenings, suggesting that factors beyond weather and environment are at play.

This decline can also be viewed through the lens of economic pressures, such as the rising costs of living and the effects of load-shedding. Consumers are becoming increasingly cautious with their discretionary spending, which means outdoor cinema operations, often dependent on ticket sales and concession revenue, must adapt. The reduced footfall is likely pushing venues to find innovative ways to attract audiences, perhaps by integrating food trucks or themed experiences to draw people in.

Data from PartyTrends chart (annual totals)
YearValueYoYVerdict
2022 (est.)5,914—Chasing
20235,740-3%Chasing
20245,010-13%Chasing
20253,890-22%Chasing
2026 (est.)5,160+33%Chasing

What SA Consumers Are Doing

The decline in outdoor cinema searches paints a vivid picture of shifting consumer behaviour in South Africa. In a nation where braai and sunset gatherings are integral to social life, it's perplexing to see a diminishing interest in such communal experiences. Especially among younger audiences who often crave Instagrammable moments, the appeal of outdoor cinema should be evident. Yet, the data suggests otherwise.

The potential reasons behind this disengagement could include the rise of streaming services and home entertainment options, which have made it more convenient and cost-effective to enjoy films from the comfort of one’s couch. Moreover, the rise of delivery services like Mr D and Uber Eats points to a consumer preference for convenience, favouring indoor settings over outdoor engagements.

Furthermore, regional disparities are also noteworthy. Townships and suburbs alike are increasingly utilising digital platforms for leisure, indicating that traditional outdoor cinema is perhaps not reaching its intended audience. Insights from search trends reveal a missed opportunity for local venues to engage communities through tailored offerings.

Yearly share
2022
17%
2023
28.4%
2024
24.8%
2025
19.2%
2026
10.6%

What retailers should do

For retailers such as Pick n Pay, Checkers, and Woolworths, the decline in outdoor cinema interest necessitates a strategic rethink on stock selection. Rather than investing in items typically associated with outdoor cinema experiences, shops should pivot toward products that align with current consumer preferences for home entertainment. Items like microwavable popcorn, frozen pizzas, and DIY nachos kits should dominate the shelves, catering to the home viewing audience.

In addition, sourcing ready-made meal solutions will be critical. Woolworths' gourmet frozen meals or Checkers' ready-to-eat range could become popular as consumers look for convenience while enjoying films at home. Furthermore, brands like Spar and Tops at Spar should consider promoting discounted bundles that encourage families to create their own cinema experiences at home rather than venturing out.

As the trend continues to sway towards at-home leisure activities, it’s crucial to look for innovative ways to market these products. Retailers should leverage marketing strategies that highlight convenience, comfort, and the joy of enjoying a movie night indoors with family and friends.

Retail action — stock this
Pick n PayCheckersShopriteWoolworths
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